Cities In Tennessee, Florida And Texas Top Ten-X’s List Of Summer’s “Hottest” Single-family Markets
Nashville, Tenn., Orlando, Fla., Fort Worth, Tex., Dallas, and San Antonio, Tex., Dominate the Top Five Slots Due to Strong Demand, Home Price Appreciation, and Economic Growth
July 11, 2017 — IRVINE AND SILICON VALLEY, CALIF. —Ten-X, the nation’s leading online real estate marketplace, today released its Top Single-Family Housing Markets Report for Summer 2017, which ranks the nation’s 50 largest housing markets according to current and forecasted housing fundamentals. Among the 50 largest US markets, the top five (in order) are Nashville, Tenn., Orlando, Fla., Fort Worth, Tex., Dallas, and San Antonio, Tex. These regions earned their spots by displaying consistently strong demand, home price appreciation, favorable affordability, and economic and demographic growth.
This quarter’s list features four newcomers. Nashville jumped from sixth to first this quarter, pushing out Tampa, which tumbled off the list to eighth. Orlando regained a spot in the top five, jumping from eighth to second. The remaining three spots on the list went to Texas metros. Fort Worth leapt from twelfth to third, Dallas dropped two spots this quarter to fourth, and San Antonio climbed six spots from last quarter.
“This quarter’s housing report continues to show that the housing market recovery varies greatly by region,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “Markets in the South and Southeast with strong job and population growth – notably Texas and Florida – continue to have a much stronger outlook than much of the Midwest and Northeast. Markets in California and the Pacific Northwest appear to be cooling down a bit as home prices have risen to levels unaffordable for many prospective buyers.”
Nashville endured a modest downturn in existing-home prices after the 2008 housing crash, but since then, prices in the metro have surged well beyond their prior peak. Orlando’s ranking reflects the continued opportunity for continued growth amid the protracted recovery seen across many Florida metros. Meanwhile, Texas emerged as a prominent force this quarter. Despite cooling somewhat with the onset of lower oil prices, the Dallas, Fort Worth and San Antonio markets have been resilient, with prices surging well beyond previous highs.
Top Five Markets at a Glance
|Market||Home Price Growth, Year over Year||Home Sales Growth, Year over Year|
|Fort Worth, TX||11.7%||3.4%|
|San Antonio, TX||8.6%||3.5%|
Top Market Highlights
Nashville’s single-family market surged to the top of our rankings with its impressive performance and optimistic outlook. Home sales growth continues to outpace the national average, making considerable strides with a 7.4% year-over-year gain this quarter. Prices are growing unabated, improving in 20 consecutive quarters and rising nearly 12% over the past year. Housing affordability remains very favorable even as prices have surged almost 40% beyond their prior peak, suggesting that prices can continue to climb without unduly pressuring buyers. The downside risk is modest; prices only fell moderately during the housing bust. Nashville’s economic forecast is strong: employment is up, and the population is growing at nearly triple the U.S, rate, all factors that should continue to drive the metro’s housing market in the coming years.
Orlando’s housing market continues to impress as one of the nation’s top performers amid its lengthy recovery. Annual sales growth has now outpaced the U.S. rate for 10 straight quarters, with sales most recently up 5.7% year-over-year and within 12% of their bubble peak. Home prices have risen more than 60% over the past five years, continuing their impressive ascent this quarter with a 10% year-over-year gain. Even so, prices still hover 15% below their prior peak and offer great affordability, suggesting that there is additional room to grow. Orlando boasts phenomenal population growth and a strong economic forecast, both indicators of healthy demand that should continue to drive the metro’s single-family-home market.
The Fort Worth housing market is taking off, as price growth continues to accelerate, reaching a cyclical high of 11.7% year-over-year this quarter. After 23 consecutive quarterly gains, prices are at an all-time high of some 43% above their pre-recession peak. Yet homes are still incredibly affordable in the metro and should allow for additional price gains. Sales are also at a cyclical high after a 3.4% yearly gain, advancing closer to their previous peak. The oil slump had little effect on Fort Worth’s housing market, and prices declined only minimally during the housing bust, highlighting the metro’s limited downside risk. Thanks to strong demographic trends and a solid economic forecast, the outlook for Fort Worth’s single-family-home market is promising.
The Dallas housing market continues to be one of the nation’s top performers. Home sales are creeping closer towards their pre-recession peak, reaching a cyclical high in the first quarter some 3.6% above their level a year ago. Prices continue their impressive surge, rising 9.2% year-over-year to $225,000 this quarter, also marking the metro’s 21st consecutive quarterly gain. Prices are now more than 50% above their prior peak, though homes remain very affordable and should appreciate even further. Considering the minimal price decline during the housing bust, the metro displays modest downside risk. Dallas has long benefited from outstanding population growth and holds one of our top economic forecasts, which should continue to drive ample housing demand in the coming years.
San Antonio’s housing market is heating up and shows promising signs for future growth. Existing-home sales choppily advanced to a cyclical high in the first quarter, a 3.5% year-over-year gain. Median prices topped $170,000 this quarter, 8.6% higher than a year ago. Even though prices are now more than 30% above their pre-recession peak, San Antonio homes remain among the most affordable in the nation, presenting ample opportunity for additional price growth. Demand should remain strong in the coming years thanks to outstanding demographic trends and a solid economic forecast. The metro experienced very modest price declines during the housing bust and has historically displayed low employment volatility, suggesting less potential downside risk. These factors all portend a bright outlook for San Antonio’s single-family-home market.
“The U.S. economy continues to expand in the face of policy, monetary and international uncertainty,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “Despite some recent deceleration, the labor market is growing at a solid clip, unemployment remains low, and wage growth is stronger. As the U.S. housing market continues to progress, these top five metros share some of the key underpinnings for growth: superior demographic trends, bright economic outlooks, and affordable housing that should enable healthy demand and generous price growth in the coming years.”
Market Rankings and Methodology
Sales and pricing activity on the Ten-X platform provides real-time insight into buyer demand and price appetite, particularly among real estate investors. Combining past and current housing trends with its economic growth forecasts, Ten-X has ranked the largest 50 metros for performance potential.
The rankings consider pricing, sales, affordability, permit activity, economic and demographic growth. Since the rankings are forward looking, Ten-X also considers economic forecasts, population trends, and future growth prospects weighed against potential volatility.
|14||Salt Lake City|
|16||Palm Beach County|
|45||Central New Jersey|
|48||Northern New Jersey|
Ten-X is the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold more than 292,000 residential and commercial properties totaling almost $48 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.