Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects July Sales of 5.59 Million Units (SAAR) And a Median Sales Price of $250,646
July 27, 2016 – IRVINE AND SILICON VALLEY, CALIF. – Ten-X, the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which projects existing home sales to remain fairly steady in July. According to the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast, July existing home sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.41 and 5.77 million, with a targeted number of 5.59 million – a 0.3 percent increase from June and a 0.1 percent year-over-year gain.
“The housing market continues to recover, despite low inventory and price appreciation that makes affordability an issue in some of the hotter markets,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “Market dynamics continue to shift to a more normal state, with fewer distressed property sales, less investor activity, and slightly more first-time buyers in the market.”
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported a 3 percent year-over-year increase in sales to 5.57 million units in June – nearly identical to the figure of 5.56 reported in last month’s Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain as sales remain at their highest annual rate since February 2007.
The NAR also reported a 4.8 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $247,700 for June, marking the 52nd consecutive month of year-over-year gains and nearly matching the prediction of $243,833 that Ten-X made in last month’s nowcast. Findings from the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast now suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $238,114 and $263,179 in the month of July with a targeted price of $250,646, representing 1.2 percent month-over-month and 7.1 percent year-over-year gains.
“The sales gains made in recent months continue to point to the overall health of the housing market, having now brushed aside the externally driven volatility seen earlier this year,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “While the U.S. housing market continues to face headwinds, June’s strong employment gain has helped ease fears of a slowdown, and healthier wage growth and low interest should continue to fuel strong underlying demand.”
About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model
The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X’s nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
Existing Home Sales
| Month | Reported Existing Home Sales
(in millions) |
Auction.com Point Estimate
(SAR in millions) |
Auction.com Predicted Range
(SAR in millions) |
| July 2015 | 5.58 | 5.56 | 5.38 – 5.74 |
| August 2015 | 5.31 | 5.64 | 5.46 – 5.82 |
| September 2015 | 5.55 | 5.40 | 5.23 – 5.57 |
| October 2015 | 5.36 | 5.44 | 5.26 – 5.61 |
| November 2015 | 4.76 | 5.37 | 5.20 – 5.54 |
| December 2015 | 5.46 | 4.95 | 4.80 – 5.11 |
| January 2016 | 5.47 | 5.29 | 5.13 – 5.47 |
| February 2016 | 5.08 | 5.40 | 5.23 – 5.58 |
| March 2016 | 5.36 | 5.32 | 5.15 – 5.55 |
| April 2016 | 5.45 | 5.52 | 5.34 – 5.70 |
| May 2016 | 5.51 | 5.65 | 5.47 – 5.83 |
| June 2016 | 5.57 | 5.56 | 5.38 – 5.74 |
| July 2016 | TBD | 5.59 | 5.41 – 5.77 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X
Existing Home Sales Pricing
| Month | Reported Existing Home Price | YoY % Change | Auction.com Point Estimate | YoY % Change | Auction.com Predicted Range |
| July 2015 | $234,000 | 5.6% | $239,126 | 7.9% | $227,170 – $251,082 |
| August 2015 | $228,700 | 4.7% | $230,666 | 5.6% | $219,132 – $242,199 |
| September 2015 | $221,900 | 6.1% | $227,760 | 8.9% | $216,372 – $239,148 |
| October 2015 | $219,600 | 5.8% | $225,546 | 8.7% | $214,269 – $236,824 |
| November 2015 | $220,300 | 6.3% | $225,323 | 8.7% | $214,057 – $236,589 |
| December 2015 | $224,100 | 7.6% | $223,322 | 7.3% | $212,156 – $234,488 |
| January 2016 | $213,800 | 8.2% | $228,251 | 15.5% | $216,839 – $239,664 |
| February 2016 | $210,800 | 4.4% | $220,639 | 9.3% | $209,607 – $231,671 |
| March 2016 | $222,700 | 5.7% | $220,218 | 4.5% | $209,207 – $231,229 |
| April 2016 | $232,500 | 6.0% | $230,284 | 5.0% | $218,770 – $241,798 |
| May 2016 | $239,700 | 4.8% | $238,418 | 4.2% | $226,497 – $250,339 |
| June 2016 | $247,700 | 4.8% | $243,833 | 3.1% | $231,642 – $256,025 |
| July 2016 | TBD | TBD | $250,646 | 7.1% | $238,114 – $263,179 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X
About Ten-X
Ten-X is the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 200,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $39 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.