IRVINE AND SILICON VALLEY, CALIF. – SEPTEMBER 27, 2017 – Ten-X, the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates September existing home sales will edge marginally lower from their current level. According to the nowcast, September sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) between 5.19 and 5.54 million with a targeted number of 5.33 million, down a minor 0.4 percent from NAR’s reported August sales.
“Existing home sales appeared to be slowing down even before the devastation caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “The housing market is likely to suffer over the next few months as the economic disruption caused by the hurricanes exacerbates the dual problems of low inventory and escalating home prices.”
Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to take another slight step back, a prediction that was confirmed by the recent National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) release, which showed that total existing-home sales declined to a 5.35 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in August. This marks a 1.7 percent decrease from July’s reported 5.44 million number, though still up 0.2 percent from a year ago.
Last month’s Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid annual gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing-home price for all housing types increased 5.6 percent from a year ago to $253,500 in August. This marks the 66th consecutive month of year-over-year gains as prices continue to advance amid a limited supply of homes for sale. The September Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing home prices will continue to make annual strides falling between $239,205 and $264,385 with a target price point of $251,795, down 0.7 percent from August, but up a sizeable 7.5 percent from last year.
“US home sales are struggling to progress amid historically tight inventory levels,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “While the inventory shortage is a boost for existing home owners, intensifying competition among buyers creates affordability concerns. The recent hurricanes and other economic factors like student debt and slowing wage growth will likely have an impact on housing sales as we move into what is traditionally a slow quarter for the housing market.”
About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model
The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X’s nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
Existing Home Sales
| Month | Reported Existing Home Sales
(in millions) |
Ten-X Point Estimate
(SAR in millions) |
Ten-X Predicted Range
(SAR in millions) |
| July 2016 | 5.39 | 5.56 | 5.38 – 5.74 |
| August 2016 | 5.33 | 5.52 | 5.34 – 5.71 |
| September 2016 | 5.47 | 5.27 | 5.1 – 5.44 |
| October 2016 | 5.60 | 5.38 | 5.21 – 5.56 |
| November 2016 | 5.61 | 5.43 | 5.26 – 5.61 |
| December 2016 | 5.49 | 5.51 | 5.33 – 5.69 |
| January 2017 | 5.69 | 5.49 | 5.32 – 5.67 |
| February 2017 | 5.48 | 5.51 | 5.34 – 5.69 |
| March 2017 | 5.70 | 5.59 | 5.41 – 5.77 |
| April 2017 | 5.57 | 5.66 | 5.4 – 5.76 |
| May 2017 | 5.62 | 5.50 | 5.37 – 5.73 |
| June 2017 | 5.51 | 5.49 | 5.28 – 5.64 |
| July 2017 | 5.44 | 5.50 | 5.32 – 5.68 |
| August 2017 | 5.35 | 5.43 | 5.33 – 5.68 |
| September 2017 | TBD | 5.33 | 5.19 – 5.54 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X
Existing Home Sales Pricing
| Month | Reported Existing Home Price | YoY % Change | Ten-X Point Estimate | YoY % Change | Ten-X Predicted Range |
| July 2016 | $244,100 | 4.3% | $250,646 | 7.1% | $238,114 – $263,179 |
| August 2016 | $240,200 | 5.1% | $248,256 | 8.6% | $235,843 – $260,669 |
| September 2016 | $234,200 | 5.6% | $239,268 | 7.8% | $227,305 – $251,232 |
| October 2016 | $232,200 | 6% | $233,452 | 5.9% | $221,779 – $245,125 |
| November 2016 | $234,900 | 6.8% | $232,306 | 3.1% | $220,691 – $243,922 |
| December 2016 | $232,200 | 4.0% | $233,346 | 4.1% | $221,679 – $245,013 |
| January 2017 | $228,900 | 7.1% | $232,918 | 2.0% | $221,272 – $244,564 |
| February 2017 | $228,400 | 7.7% | $231,638 | 9.9% | $220,056 – $243,220 |
| March 2017 | $236,400 | 6.8% | $232,511 | 4.4% | $220,885 – $244,136 |
| April 2017 | $244,800 | 6% | $242,158 | 4.2% | $230,050 – $254,266 |
| May 2017 | $252,800 | 5.8% | $250,074 | 4.3% | $237,570 – $262,577 |
| June 2017 | $263,800 | 6.5% | $257,046 | 3.8% | $244,194 – $269,899 |
| July 2017 | $258,300 | 6.2% | $264,441 | 8.3% | $251,219 – $277,663 |
| August 2017 | $253,500 | 5.65 | $258,105 | 7.5% | $245,200 – $271,011 |
| September 2017 | TBD | TBD | $251,795 | 7.5% | $239,205 – $264,385 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X