Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects March Existing Home Sales of 5.59 Million Units (SAAR) and a Median Sales Price of $232,551
March 29, 2017 – IRVINE AND SILICON VALLEY, CALIF. – Ten-X, the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a slight increase in existing home sales. According to the nowcast, March sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.41 – 5.77 million with a targeted number of 5.59 million, up 2.0 percent from NAR’s reported February sales and up 4.6 percent from a year ago.
“As we enter the important Spring selling season, consumer demand appears to be strong. The big question is whether there will be enough homes for sale to meet that demand,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “The underlying fundamentals of the market remain solid: job and wage growth are strong and interest rates remain low despite a slight uptick after the Fed move. But inventory – especially of entry-level homes – remains stubbornly low.”
Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to take a step back from their cyclical high and the recent report from The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) confirmed this. NAR reported that existing home sales in February retreated to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 5.48 million units, down 3.7 percent from January although still up 5.4 percent from a year ago.
Last month’s Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid year-over-year gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing-home price for all housing types rose 7.7 percent year-over-year to $228,400 in February. This marks the 60th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The March Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing-home sales will continue to make annual strides in March, falling between $220,885 – $244,136 with a target price point of $232,511 up 1.8 percent from February and up 4.4 percent from last year’s NAR figure.
“As inventory supply continues to constrain the housing market, housing demand and home price growth continue to be strong, creating affordability concerns in some markets,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “Looking forward, it’s possible that higher mortgage rates may contribute to more affordability obstacles for would-be homebuyers. In the meantime, the US housing market will continue to forge ahead in a jagged fashion as the solid labor market supports demand.”
About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model
The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X’s nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
Existing Home Sales
| Month | Reported Existing Home Sales
(in millions) |
Ten-X Point Estimate
(SAR in millions) |
Ten-X Predicted Range
(SAR in millions) |
| February 2016 | 5.08 | 5.40 | 5.23 – 5.58 |
| March 2016 | 5.33 | 5.32 | 5.15 – 5.55 |
| April 2016 | 5.45 | 5.52 | 5.34 – 5.70 |
| May 2016 | 5.53 | 5.65 | 5.47 – 5.83 |
| June 2016 | 5.57 | 5.56 | 5.38 – 5.74 |
| July 2016 | 5.39 | 5.56 | 5.38 – 5.74 |
| August 2016 | 5.33 | 5.52 | 5.34 – 5.71 |
| September 2016 | 5.47 | 5.27 | 5.1 – 5.44 |
| October 2016 | 5.60 | 5.38 | 5.21 – 5.56 |
| November 2016 | 5.61 | 5.43 | 5.26 – 5.61 |
| December 2016 | 5.49 | 5.51 | 5.33 – 5.69 |
| January 2017 | 5.69 | 5.49 | 5.32 – 5.67 |
| February 2017 | 5.48 | 5.51 | 5.34 – 5.69 |
| March 2017 | TBD | 5.59 | 5.41 – 5.77 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X
Existing Home Sales Pricing
| Month | Reported Existing Home Price | YoY % Change | Ten-X Point Estimate | YoY % Change | Ten-X Predicted Range |
| February 2016 | $210,800 | 4.4% | $220,639 | 9.3% | $209,607 – $231,671 |
| March 2016 | $222,700 | 5.7% | $220,218 | 4.5% | $209,207 – $231,229 |
| April 2016 | $232,500 | 6.0% | $230,284 | 5.0% | $218,770 – $241,798 |
| May 2016 | $239,700 | 4.8% | $238,418 | 4.2% | $226,497 – $250,339 |
| June 2016 | $247,700 | 4.8% | $243,833 | 3.1% | $231,642 – $256,025 |
| July 2016 | $244,100 | 4.3% | $250,646 | 7.1% | $238,114 – $263,179 |
| August 2016 | $240,200 | 5.1% | $248,256 | 8.6% | $235,843 – $260,669 |
| September 2016 | $234,200 | 5.6% | $239,268 | 7.8% | $227,305 – $251,232 |
| October 2016 | $232,200 | 6% | $233,452 | 5.9% | $221,779 – $245,125 |
| November 2016 | $234,900 | 6.8% | $232,306 | 3.1% | $220,691 – $243,922 |
| December 2016 | $232,200 | 4.0% | $233,346 | 4.1% | $221,679 – $245,013 |
| January 2017 | $228,900 | 7.1% | $232,918 | 2.0% | $221,272 – $244,564 |
| February 2017 | $228,400 | 7.7% | $231,638 | 9.9% | $220,056 – $243,220 |
| March 2017 | TBD | TBD | $232,511 | 4.4% | $220,885 – $244,136 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X
About Ten-X
Ten-X is the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 275,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling almost $46 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.