|Tampa, Fla., Dallas, Columbus, Ohio, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville, Fla. Dominate the Top Five Slots Due to Solid Economies and Growing Populations|
IRVINE AND SILICON VALLEY, CALIF. – April 12, 2017 – Ten-X, the nation’s leading online real estate marketplace, today released its Top Single-Family Housing Markets Report for Spring, which ranks the nation’s 50 largest housing markets according to current and forecasted housing fundamentals. Among the 50 largest US markets, the top five (in order) were Tampa, Fla., Dallas, Columbus, Ohio, Las Vegas and Jacksonville, Fla., each demonstrating a vigorous combination of consistently strong demand, home price appreciation, and economic and demographic growth.
While previous reports have heavily featured Florida markets, this quarter’s list is more diverse. Tampa and Dallas each advanced three spots to take the top two rankings this quarter, respectively. Columbus jumped from tenth to third this quarter, while Las Vegas rejoined the top five metros list after a brief hiatus, rising from ninth to fourth. Jacksonville rounds out the top five, climbing a few spots from last quarter.
“This quarter’s housing report had a few surprises, showing how a market’s housing outlook can ebb and flow depending on changes in some of the underlying fundamentals,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “For example, Columbus bucked the downward trend we’re seeing in many other Midwestern markets due to population and job growth, while cities that formerly ranked highly in our analysis, like Los Angeles and San Francisco, are beginning to show signs of weakness due to prices that have risen high enough to impact affordability.”
Tampa, Jacksonville and Las Vegas have all emerged in the aftermath of a devastating housing bust. While they are still on the road to recovery, they have all made impressive strides benefiting from accelerating population growth and prosperous local economies. This has contributed to both an increase in the local jobs market and increased demand in the housing market. Columbus stands out among otherwise struggling metros in the Midwest as stronger economic and demographic trends in this market have supported healthier housing demand. Columbus has also benefitted from historically lower volatility than most of the Midwest, as has Dallas, which offers a more diversified local economy – a factor that has helped strengthen its housing market despite the uncertainty surrounding oil prices.
Top Five Markets at a Glance
Top Market Highlights
The Tampa housing market continues to flourish in its impressive recovery. Metro employment is up 3.1 percent year-over-year and has been consistently growing in the 2 to 4 percent range for five years. Jobs in the two biggest sectors, professional/business services and education/healthcare services, continue to reach new heights and drive nearly one third of the local economy. Median existing home prices continues to rise, topping all major metros this quarter with 13.1 percent year-over-year growth. The metro’s accelerating population growth and positive economic outlook should bolster demand and serve as solid underpinnings for Tampa’s housing market.
The Dallas housing market continues its exceptional performance despite low oil prices that are proving detrimental to other Texas metros as employment growth measures in the low 4 percent range. Home sales remain elevated as they gradually close the gap with their pre-recession peak, most recently rising 2.9 percent from a year ago. Seasonally adjusted prices are at an all-time high after their recent 10.6 year-over-year gain and have risen for 20 straight quarters following a modest downturn. Although prices are more than 56 percent beyond their pre-bust peak, single-family homes remain very inexpensive relative to local income levels. In addition, single family homes are more affordable than local apartment rentals, which should keep demand focused on home buying. Thanks to its diversification, Dallas benefits from superior population growth and a solid economic forecast, both of which should continue fueling the metro’s housing market.
The Columbus housing market is making impressive progress. Year-over-year employment growth is at 2 percent and on par with the growth seen through much of this cycle. Payrolls are now at an all-time high, some 11.2 percent beyond their previous peak. The metro’s professional and business services sector has been more erratic, but continues to rise with 2.1 percent annual growth. Home sales are up 6.6 percent from a year ago and are now at a cyclical high within 10 percent of their pre-recession peak. Home prices are 9.6% higher than a year ago as annual price growth has accelerated to its strongest pace this cycle. Columbus’ population growth and solid economic forecast should continue to bolster local housing demand, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the housing market.
The Las Vegas housing market continues to thrive in the aftermath of its severe recessionary downturn. The education and healthcare services sector is seeing solid employment growth in the 5 percent range. The small but oversized construction/mining sector is also seeing notable gains, with payrolls now up 7.3 percent from a year ago. Home prices continue to see phenomenal growth, recently rising 9.7 percent from a year ago. Prices have now risen nearly 90 percent since they bottomed out five years ago, yet they remain very affordable at roughly 30 percent below their bubble peak allowing for additional gains. Strong demographics in the metro indicate continued economic expansion, as population growth accelerates and a superior economic forecast portends a bright outlook for this market.
Jacksonville’s housing market is excelling as sales and prices continue to improve in the wake of its severe bust. Though Jacksonville’s expansion has slowed modestly after posting job losses in two of the last four months, the metro’s economy continues to impress with job growth just under 3 percent year-over-year. The sizeable education and healthcare services sector recently saw nearly 5 percent job growth, while the oversized financial services sector is reaching new heights. Existing-home sales are up 7.3 year-over-year and are marching towards their pre-recession peak. Jacksonville also benefits from excellent population growth and has been outpacing the US for over two decades. Accelerated population growth combined with a robust economy should fuel Jacksonville’s local housing market going forward.
“The US economy remains in expansion despite potential political and international turbulence,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “The labor market in particular has gotten off to a strong start in 2017, as job gains, low unemployment, and rising wages are fueling housing demand. While the housing market does face some headwinds, these top metros are performing well and have solid growth prospects thanks to great affordability and strong economic and demographic underpinnings.”
Market Rankings and Methodology
Sales and pricing activity on the Ten-X platform provides real-time insight into buyer demand and price appetite, particularly among real estate investors. Combining past and current housing trends with its economic growth forecasts, Ten-X has ranked the largest 50 metros for performance potential.
The rankings take into account pricing, sales, affordability, permit activity, economic and demographic growth. Since the rankings are forward looking, Ten-X also takes into account economic forecasts, population trends, and future growth prospects weighed against potential volatility.
Ten-X is the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 275,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $46 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.